Predicting Thursday Night Football Blowouts

Predicting blowouts provides a useful fantasy football advantage. Simply, one should start multiple players on the winning team and avoid starting players on the losing team.

Last night, the Falcons put up a ton of points against the Bucs. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Steven Jackson, Devin Hester, Antone Smith, and the Falcons defense all scored double digits (Harry Doulas also chipped in a touchdown). While the Bucs had no double digit earners—only scraps of points from Bobby Rainey, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Evans—all were made during junk time.

So how does one gain a fantasy football advantage from this?

Consider the following trend in weeks 1, 2, and 3, and predictions for weeks 4, 5, and 6.

The first three Thursday Night Football games have all been blowouts. In each game, the home team has won. In each game, the winning team had something to prove.

In week one on TNF, Seattle needed to prove that they were still the same team that won the championship, especially since many of the past Lombardi Trophy winners have had post season Superbowl hangovers. The Seahawks blasted the Packers 36-16. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Percy Harvin had excellent games. Aaron Rodgers had one of his worst.

In week two on TNF, the Ravens were coming off of a humiliating loss at home against their division rival in Cincinnati. Desperate to avoid starting 0-2 at home and for the season, the Ravens needed to prove that they were over their Superbowl hangover from the 2012 season and show that they were indeed playoff contenders once again. The Ravens manhandled the Steelers 26-6. Joe Flacco, Bernard Pierce, and Justin Tucker had nice games; Owen Daniels served as a fantasy zombie—coming to life with 2 touchdowns. While the Steelers failed to get into the endzone.

In week three on TNF, the Falcons were coming off of a humiliating loss handed to them by the Bengals as well. ATL needed to prove: they were over their fluke from last season, are indeed a force to be reckoned with, and are contenders for the playoffs. The Falcons squashed the Bucs at home 56-14.

In week four on TNF, the Redskins host the Giants. Coming off a poor performance at Philly, The Skins will need to prove that they are real contenders for the division without RG3. Washington will beat New York 35-7. Advise: start Redskins; bench Giants.

In week 5 on TNF, the Packers host the Vikings. After a disappointing start to the season, the Packers will need to prove that they are indeed an elite team. Green Bay will beat Minnesota 45-14. Advise: start Packers; bench Vikings.

In week 6 on TNF, the Texans host the Colts. Once considered a top Superbowl prospect, the Texans need to prove that they still have a dominating defense and can use it to win the AFC South. Houston will beat Indianapolis 20-6. Advise: start Texans; bench Colts.