Predicting blowouts provides a useful fantasy football advantage. Simply, one should start multiple players on the winning team and avoid starting players on the losing team.
Last night, the Falcons put up a ton of points against the Bucs. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Steven Jackson, Devin Hester, Antone Smith, and the Falcons defense all scored double digits (Harry Doulas also chipped in a touchdown). While the Bucs had no double digit earners—only scraps of points from Bobby Rainey, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Evans—all were made during junk time.
So how does one gain a fantasy football advantage from this?
Consider the following trend in weeks 1, 2, and 3, and predictions for weeks 4, 5, and 6.
The first three Thursday Night Football games have all been blowouts. In each game, the home team has won. In each game, the winning team had something to prove.
In week one on TNF, Seattle needed to prove that they were still the same team that won the championship, especially since many of the past Lombardi Trophy winners have had post season Superbowl hangovers. The Seahawks blasted the Packers 36-16. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Percy Harvin had excellent games. Aaron Rodgers had one of his worst.
In week two on TNF, the Ravens were coming off of a humiliating loss at home against their division rival in Cincinnati. Desperate to avoid starting 0-2 at home and for the season, the Ravens needed to prove that they were over their Superbowl hangover from the 2012 season and show that they were indeed playoff contenders once again. The Ravens manhandled the Steelers 26-6. Joe Flacco, Bernard Pierce, and Justin Tucker had nice games; Owen Daniels served as a fantasy zombie—coming to life with 2 touchdowns. While the Steelers failed to get into the endzone.
In week three on TNF, the Falcons were coming off of a humiliating loss handed to them by the Bengals as well. ATL needed to prove: they were over their fluke from last season, are indeed a force to be reckoned with, and are contenders for the playoffs. The Falcons squashed the Bucs at home 56-14.
In week four on TNF, the Redskins host the Giants. Coming off a poor performance at Philly, The Skins will need to prove that they are real contenders for the division without RG3. Washington will beat New York 35-7. Advise: start Redskins; bench Giants.
In week 5 on TNF, the Packers host the Vikings. After a disappointing start to the season, the Packers will need to prove that they are indeed an elite team. Green Bay will beat Minnesota 45-14. Advise: start Packers; bench Vikings.
In week 6 on TNF, the Texans host the Colts. Once considered a top Superbowl prospect, the Texans need to prove that they still have a dominating defense and can use it to win the AFC South. Houston will beat Indianapolis 20-6. Advise: start Texans; bench Colts.
Friday, September 19, 2014
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Feminism Is Not a Fad; It's the Future
I'm male. I'm a feminist. And I'm not perfect either.
Months ago, when the first video of Ray Rice dragging Janay Palmer out of the elevator went public, I watched in denial. "Maybe she got drunk, passed out, and he tried carrying her up to their room," I thought. Then after watching the whole video, I felt like an ass. My only excuse: I was a fan of Ray Rice and desperately hoped that he wasn't a bad guy. Conclusion: I was ignorant.
The problem with men such as myself: we are unbearably slow. Too often, we need to play extra innings in order to arrive at the appropriate responses to situations that concern women. Nevertheless, women tolerate us. We're lucky they do.
The reason for our slowness: we lack control of our emotions. Contradiction to reality, women are the ones typically accused of being overemotional, and this is bullshit.
When confronting mental challenges, men such as myself try swinging a bat at our emotions in hopes to bash out feelings and let logic happen. And like a Hail Mary pass to the endzone, sometimes we get lucky. In fact, I consider luck one of my best virtues, especially when it comes to getting a second chance with women when I don't deserve it.
Notably, women are the ones who manage logic and emotions methodically like quarterbacks leading their teams on long drives. Some women are even capable of doing our thing better than us. You'd think we'd let them do it, and encourage them as well, but we don't because it scares the shit out of us.
Paranoia, fear, anger: these are the emotions (in that order) that give men such as myself problems. We notice the inevitable: women obtaining equality in every field. This change freaks us out. We're paranoid where women's equality will lead, we fear everything we know changing, we get angry every time there's tangible progress. Ray Rice's atrocity was finally handled this week. Regardless of various opinions on the matter, the tone that was dominate in men's responses to the incident was anger (no points awarded for guys who tried to hide anger with amusement and posting things on Facebook like, "Good riddance!").
When it comes to women's equality, where do you draw the line? You don't. You can't. Women will eventually obtain their goal: 50% of everything. They're unstoppable.
My prediction is that we'll be alive to see a lot of big changes in women's equality: a woman president, women priests, and women playing in men's professional sports.
You went, "Pfft," at women playing in men's sports didn't you? (Not you ladies.) Allow me to introduce Mo'ne Davis.
She's not a softball pitcher; she's a baseball pitcher and appears to be the total package. What are the technicalities prohibiting women from playing in men's professional sports leagues? Who the hell knows! But I believe nothing is going to stop Mo'ne Davis and all the other young ladies who got "the stuff" and are well adjusted like she is.
Still poo-pooing my predictions? Whatever.
A realm exists where everything that you say will never ever happen - will happen. It's called the future.
Months ago, when the first video of Ray Rice dragging Janay Palmer out of the elevator went public, I watched in denial. "Maybe she got drunk, passed out, and he tried carrying her up to their room," I thought. Then after watching the whole video, I felt like an ass. My only excuse: I was a fan of Ray Rice and desperately hoped that he wasn't a bad guy. Conclusion: I was ignorant.
The problem with men such as myself: we are unbearably slow. Too often, we need to play extra innings in order to arrive at the appropriate responses to situations that concern women. Nevertheless, women tolerate us. We're lucky they do.
The reason for our slowness: we lack control of our emotions. Contradiction to reality, women are the ones typically accused of being overemotional, and this is bullshit.
When confronting mental challenges, men such as myself try swinging a bat at our emotions in hopes to bash out feelings and let logic happen. And like a Hail Mary pass to the endzone, sometimes we get lucky. In fact, I consider luck one of my best virtues, especially when it comes to getting a second chance with women when I don't deserve it.
Notably, women are the ones who manage logic and emotions methodically like quarterbacks leading their teams on long drives. Some women are even capable of doing our thing better than us. You'd think we'd let them do it, and encourage them as well, but we don't because it scares the shit out of us.
Paranoia, fear, anger: these are the emotions (in that order) that give men such as myself problems. We notice the inevitable: women obtaining equality in every field. This change freaks us out. We're paranoid where women's equality will lead, we fear everything we know changing, we get angry every time there's tangible progress. Ray Rice's atrocity was finally handled this week. Regardless of various opinions on the matter, the tone that was dominate in men's responses to the incident was anger (no points awarded for guys who tried to hide anger with amusement and posting things on Facebook like, "Good riddance!").
When it comes to women's equality, where do you draw the line? You don't. You can't. Women will eventually obtain their goal: 50% of everything. They're unstoppable.
My prediction is that we'll be alive to see a lot of big changes in women's equality: a woman president, women priests, and women playing in men's professional sports.
You went, "Pfft," at women playing in men's sports didn't you? (Not you ladies.) Allow me to introduce Mo'ne Davis.
She's not a softball pitcher; she's a baseball pitcher and appears to be the total package. What are the technicalities prohibiting women from playing in men's professional sports leagues? Who the hell knows! But I believe nothing is going to stop Mo'ne Davis and all the other young ladies who got "the stuff" and are well adjusted like she is.
Still poo-pooing my predictions? Whatever.
A realm exists where everything that you say will never ever happen - will happen. It's called the future.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
A few things before kickoff
Acquisition Budgets
You may have noticed your acquisition budget beginning at 100 instead of 1000. Both Yahoo and ESPN use a base budget of 100 to gauge players for waivers, trades, and auction drafts. Although I feel using low numbers don't truly represent the monetary nature of the NFL, there's no need to be different. This way, the value that analysts put on players will make sense in our league.
Small Leagues
Due to a lot of legacy team owners stepping down this season, The Lumbergh F*cked Her Leagues are 10 and 8 teamed. Hopefully, we'll see them back next season. In the meantime, one thing that should change this year is an increase in trades and a decrease in drops. Virtually all of your players rank inside the top 150. This leaves very few of them droppable. Use the trade block and remember that trades process faster than waivers.
Smack Talk
With all the fancy video and picture taking apps available for smartphones, there's simply no excuse not to get more creative with smack talk this year. Have fun! That's why you joined isn't it?
Far and Away
Y'all know I've moved to LA, and I'll be missing my B'more crew, so chat with me during the games. I'd like to use Twitter and/or Facebook chat over group text messages. Agreed?
You may have noticed your acquisition budget beginning at 100 instead of 1000. Both Yahoo and ESPN use a base budget of 100 to gauge players for waivers, trades, and auction drafts. Although I feel using low numbers don't truly represent the monetary nature of the NFL, there's no need to be different. This way, the value that analysts put on players will make sense in our league.
Small Leagues
Due to a lot of legacy team owners stepping down this season, The Lumbergh F*cked Her Leagues are 10 and 8 teamed. Hopefully, we'll see them back next season. In the meantime, one thing that should change this year is an increase in trades and a decrease in drops. Virtually all of your players rank inside the top 150. This leaves very few of them droppable. Use the trade block and remember that trades process faster than waivers.
Smack Talk
With all the fancy video and picture taking apps available for smartphones, there's simply no excuse not to get more creative with smack talk this year. Have fun! That's why you joined isn't it?
Far and Away
Y'all know I've moved to LA, and I'll be missing my B'more crew, so chat with me during the games. I'd like to use Twitter and/or Facebook chat over group text messages. Agreed?
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Chomp Down on the Competition with Draft Sharks' MVP Board
 |
| photo by Joshua Ridgeway |
After trying out Draft Sharks' MVP Board, I'm convinced that it's one of the best tools out there for ensuring a quality draft. Let me do you a solid. I'm going to get right down to the chum of this thing and explain exactly why you should use Draft Sharks' MVP Board for your next fantasy football draft.
Draft Sharks Wins Awards
In two of the last four years, Draft Sharks has been awarded "The Most Credible Pre-Season Fantasy Football Projections" by FSTA. I found their overall player rankings to be close with mine and that of my most trusted resources. Personally, I would call DS's rankings, "down-to-earth."
The MVP Board Syncs with Your League's Settings
This is the single feature that won me over. With a DS account, you can configure the MVP Board by logging into your league's provider and transferring the settings. It was easy with Yahoo. The MVP Board uses your league's specific settings to rank the best player for your team when it's your turn to draft. Skeptical of its suggestions at first, I analyzed my first mock draft using the MVP Board and agree it works well. Because my league scores 6 points for passing touchdowns and rosters 1 QB, 2 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, and 1 WR/RB/TE, QBs and RBs should be favored, and WRs and TEs are almost on the same level. DS made the right adjustments for this on the MVP Board.
The MVP Board is NOT an Auto Draft
The MVP Board Makes it easy for you to choose the right player in the right round. While you update the board with your picks and the picks of other team owners, the MVP Board computes the best players for you and suggests them in groups of 5. You simply choose the one you like the best. If you do not like any of the 5 suggested players, you can X them out individually (X-ed out players will repopulate if they're not drafted). This makes the MVP Board feel more like a personal assistant rather than Big Brother.
What You Need to Know
You'll need to practice using the MVP Board before you draft for real. No worries, there's an easy sample board for you to try out before you subscribe to their service. If you are drafting online, you'll essentially need to use two screens: one for the MVP Board and one for your actual online draft. I used the Windows Snap Feature and zoomed out a bit and this worked for me (see pic below). If you're drafting offline (like at a party) then don't let anyone sneak a peek for free.
What You Need to Know
You'll need to practice using the MVP Board before you draft for real. No worries, there's an easy sample board for you to try out before you subscribe to their service. If you are drafting online, you'll essentially need to use two screens: one for the MVP Board and one for your actual online draft. I used the Windows Snap Feature and zoomed out a bit and this worked for me (see pic below). If you're drafting offline (like at a party) then don't let anyone sneak a peek for free.
The Bottom Line
You'll draft a better team with Draft Sharks' MVP Board, and likely be in contention for the championship, if you continue to use its other valuable fantasy football features. Good luck and happy drafting.
You'll draft a better team with Draft Sharks' MVP Board, and likely be in contention for the championship, if you continue to use its other valuable fantasy football features. Good luck and happy drafting.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Fractions of Pennies
Office Space's subplot serves up the perfect theme for trying out a Points Per Reception league (A.K.A. PPR). Don't worry. You won't have to learn how to "laundry money" or anything, in fact, some of you may find the PPR style easier to understand. Below are the differences between how my standard league scores and how the PPR will score.
Stat
|
Standard
|
PPR
|
Passing TDs
|
6
|
6
|
Passing yards
|
1 per 25 yards
|
0
|
Completions
|
0
|
1
|
40+ yard completions
|
0
|
1
|
Interceptions
|
-1
|
-1
|
Pick 6s
|
-1
|
-1
|
Reception TDs
|
6
|
6
|
Reception yards
|
1 per 10 yards
|
0
|
Receptions
|
0
|
1
|
40+ yard receptions
|
0
|
1
|
Rushing TDs
|
6
|
6
|
Rushing yards
|
1 per 10 yards
|
0
|
40+ yard rushes
|
0
|
1
|
Fumbles lost
|
-1
|
-1
|
Return TDs
|
6
|
6
|
Return yards
|
1 per 20 yards
|
0
|
I'm also interested in changing the free league into a paid league with $20 dues. I'll set up a poll to get your thoughts on this.
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Break Down the Cubicle Walls
Face it. You couldn't handle your boring job if it wasn't for fantasy football. Walking into the workplace looms dreadful thoughts, "Ugh! 8 more hours of this shit." The only bright spots at the beginning of your shift: possible free donuts in the break room and checking your fantasy football team.
No other flick sums up the common American goal of not doing work at work than the classic comedy Office Space. Therefore, I present to you: The "Lumbergh f*cked her" League. It's time to blow off authority, do as you please, and get recognition for it, like Peter did when he just said, "Fuck it," and got promoted.
No other flick sums up the common American goal of not doing work at work than the classic comedy Office Space. Therefore, I present to you: The "Lumbergh f*cked her" League. It's time to blow off authority, do as you please, and get recognition for it, like Peter did when he just said, "Fuck it," and got promoted.
Many of us have been fantasy footballin' together for over 10 years now. I'm proud to be your commish, and I would certainly conspire to infiltrate "the man" and steal fractions of pennies with you. So here we are, together again for another exciting season. Pay your dues, and sign up soon. We got a lot of not working to do.
Friday, January 10, 2014
End of Season Report: Time to Try Draft Kings
Alas, another fantasy football season ends, depriving team owners of their weekend treat. Replacing your #1 fantasy sports hobby with games like NFL Playoff Challenges and Fantasy NBA is likely more sad than it is satisfying. And Fantasy Baseball and March Madness Brackets are close but no cigar! Thankfully, Draft Kings may have the jelly to fill your empty doughnut hole.
I'm trying Draft Kings for the first time this weekend. I've entered the Fantasy Football $400,000 Divisional Clash, drafted a team, and entered it into nine separate contests, all while taking advantage of the LeagueSafe 5% transfer bonus. I haven't been this excited since Round 1 of the Greed is Good FFL Playoffs. Wish me luck! And try it out for yourself!
Again, congratulations to the winners of the Greed is Good FFL! Based on Red Riders tenacious approach to managing his teams in the past few years, I knew it wouldn't be long before he'd grab the trophy. Y'all can thank me for stopping him from going undefeated . . . .
As promised, below is the draft order for next season. I really had a great time having you all in the league, and I hope to see you return. Happy off-season to yas!
GiGFFL Paid
1st pick - Discard After Use
2nd pick - Von Miller's Dealer
3rd pick - timesofgracefullness
4th pick - I Got Gronkitis
5th pick - He Hate Me
6th pick - Terrorizors
7th pick - DC In Yo Face
8th pick - I Pitta Da' Fool $$$
9th pick - Mad Ravens
10th pick - CarefreeCFC
11th pick - SwashBucklers
12th pick - Nip-com-plete
13th pick - The Dean
14th pick - Red Riders
GiGFFL Free
1st pick - gettinitdone
2nd pick - M.I. Man UP
3rd pick - Four Loko
4th pick - Turd Fergusons
5th pick - Bitchtits
6th pick - Hail Mary
7th pick - poon dogs
8th pick - Super Heater
9th pick - The Commish
10th pick - Bobbum Man
I'm trying Draft Kings for the first time this weekend. I've entered the Fantasy Football $400,000 Divisional Clash, drafted a team, and entered it into nine separate contests, all while taking advantage of the LeagueSafe 5% transfer bonus. I haven't been this excited since Round 1 of the Greed is Good FFL Playoffs. Wish me luck! And try it out for yourself!
Again, congratulations to the winners of the Greed is Good FFL! Based on Red Riders tenacious approach to managing his teams in the past few years, I knew it wouldn't be long before he'd grab the trophy. Y'all can thank me for stopping him from going undefeated . . . .
As promised, below is the draft order for next season. I really had a great time having you all in the league, and I hope to see you return. Happy off-season to yas!
GiGFFL Paid
1st pick - Discard After Use
2nd pick - Von Miller's Dealer
3rd pick - timesofgracefullness
4th pick - I Got Gronkitis
5th pick - He Hate Me
6th pick - Terrorizors
7th pick - DC In Yo Face
8th pick - I Pitta Da' Fool $$$
9th pick - Mad Ravens
10th pick - CarefreeCFC
11th pick - SwashBucklers
12th pick - Nip-com-plete
13th pick - The Dean
14th pick - Red Riders
GiGFFL Free
1st pick - gettinitdone
2nd pick - M.I. Man UP
3rd pick - Four Loko
4th pick - Turd Fergusons
5th pick - Bitchtits
6th pick - Hail Mary
7th pick - poon dogs
8th pick - Super Heater
9th pick - The Commish
10th pick - Bobbum Man
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)